Sebastian Spio-Garbrah - Head of DaMina
Posted on: www.dailyguideghana.com
By William Yaw Owusu
Monday, January 19, 2015
DaMina, an
independent frontier markets risk advisory, research and consulting firm has
made mind-blowing predictions for 2015 and said the Ghana-IMF bailout agreement
is unlikely to happen during the year.
According to DaMina, headed by Sebastian Spio-Garbrah, son of Ekwow Spio-Garbrah,
Minister of Trade and Industry, the much touted IMF Bailout might not be
possible anytime soon because the parties are unable to agree a comprehensive
reform programme.
“Unable to agree on a comprehensive reform
program, fearing the reaction of labor unions to stiff IMF demands for large
public sector wage and headcount cuts ahead of critical 2016 elections, amidst
squabbling between the leader of the government negotiating team and the
finance ministry, Ghana’s hopes for an early 2015 January IMF deal is
unlikely.”
The report said “a
breakdown in the IMF negotiations may see the President firing the Finance Minister
and possibly the central bank governor.”
Jonathan’s defeat
In the 2015 forecast
for Africa, DaMina predicted a defeat for Nigeria’s President Goodluck Ebele
Jonathan in the February crucial presidential election.
“Gen (Rtd) Mohammad Buhari to defeat President
Goodluck Jonathan in surprise upset: Capitalizing on widespread middle class
discontent with President Goodluck Jonathan’s epochal failure to defeat the
terror group Boko Haram and rescue the 200 kidnapped Chibok school girls, and
facing increasing defections from the ruling party led by his former mentor,
former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who has slammed Jonathan for incompetence
and covering up corruption, the 72-year old stern former military head of state
and anti-corruption fighter former General Mohammad Buhari is poised to defeat
Jonathan in a surprise upset at the
February 2015 general elections.”
According to the
report, Gen. Buhari is expected to “marshal strong support from the Muslim
north and the western Yoruba ethnic groups as well as from Lagos,” adding “Buhari’s
running mate is an anti-corruption lawyer, who doubles as a charismatic pastor
at one of Nigeria’s largest churches.
Jonathan’s re-election while drawing
support from the south-south and south east will nationally fall short
arithmetically.”
Mugabe not safe
The report said
Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe “still faces threat of the ‘Bourguiba
treatment’ despite elevating trusted aides to the position of Vice President.
“Despite the fanfare
and histrionics around the late 2014 firing of vice president Joyce Mujuru by President
Mugabe, and the placement of longtime
hardliner security apparatchik Emmerson Mnangagwa as Mugabe’s number 2, the
ailing 90-year old Mugabe still faces the real prospect of being shunted aside
in a Habib Bourguiba style.”
“In 1987 longtime
Tunisian leader and father of the nation, Habib Bourguiba, then, 84 years was
removed from office on grounds of medical incompetency by his chosen heir,
Abidine Ben Ali, who was later himself in 2011 chased out of power by the Arab
Spring. Mugabe faces a similar fate in 2015.”
Ebola Comeback
DaMina predicted the
re-ignition of deadly Ebola outbreak that has killed thousands of people
particularly in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.
“Despite the
successful containment of the Ebola outbreak in Liberia and Guinea, the disease
has yet to be fully contained in Sierra Leone. Moreover the underlying
conditions relating to poor health infrastructure and personnel in West Africa
which allowed the virus to spread wildly have yet to be comprehensively
tackled. It is therefore very likely that in 2015, Ebola will again re-emerge
and possibly spread geographically to other hitherto non infected countries in
West Africa.”
Tanzania Opposition
The report said Tanzania
opposition alliance are likely to take power in historic shift saying “Tanzania's
main opposition party alliance headed by the Chadema party will rout the
longtime ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party which has been in power since
independence in 1961 in the scheduled October 2015 polls. CCM faces accusations
of widespread corruption, incompetence and electoral complacency.”
Muslim Brotherhood
It further said Egypt’s
Muslim Brotherhood are likely to turn jihadist saying “Egypt’s Muslim
Brotherhood, which after decades of patiently waiting to gain power peacefully
through the ballot box lost power in a Western acquiesced military coup will in
2015 transform its suppressed underground structures into militant armed cells
to fight the regime of Field Marshal Al Sisi.”
President Ouattara
DaMina also predicted
and ‘easy’ re-election of Ivory Coast’s
President Alassane Ouattara “if his health holds up” adding “however, his final
term rather than focusing attention on his bold economic reform agenda will
degenerate into intraparty and cross party squabbles over his succession.”
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