Thursday, October 06, 2016

IMF BLOWS GOV’T COVER

By William Yaw Owusu
Thursday, October 06, 2016

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) data has revealed that Ghana’s economic growth in 2016 will slow down to the lowest rate recorded in more than 20 years.

The data has disclosed that there is going to be a full-blown financial crisis in Ghana if the government does not take aggressive measures to check the country’s rising debts.

Contradiction
This revelation sharply contradicts President John Mahama’s claim that his National Democratic Congress (NDC) government has set Ghana on a path of economic progress, as he campaigns vigorously for a re-election.

At the commencement of the second leg of his Brong-Ahafo Regional tour, President Mahama said in Yeji in the Pru-East Constituency on Tuesday that the NDC government had done all it needs to sustain the economy and “because of that a lot of investors have reposed confidence in our economy. The Cedi has also been stabilized.”

Addressing the chiefs at the Yeji chief’s palace, he cited the decreasing inflationary rates and the recent Moody’s ratings of Ghana as proof of the strides his government had made in the last four years since the Supreme Court declared that he was validly elected.

“Apart from this, Moody’s rating some two weeks ago also showed that our economy is robust. They said we have moved from a negative rank to a stable one,” the president declared.

Moody’s Rating
In its recent economic report on Ghana, Moody defined the country’s economic outlook as positive, affirming the rating at B3.

The report cited significant fiscal deficit reduction and success in implementing structural reforms over the past year, as well as reduction in government liquidity risk on the external side.

The agency pointed out that the proceeds of the $750 million Eurobond earmarked for debt repayments is part of the key drivers for the stabilization of the rating.

Other reasons cited for the revision were improved balance of payments dynamics, including improved foreign direct investments (FDI) inflows and continued development of oil and gas resources.

Interestingly, it was the same President Mahama-led government that mismanaged the economy between 2012 till date to attract the previous negative rating by Moody.

“The president had inherited an economy that was growing at about 14% in 2011 but the high level of incompetence displayed by economic managers has seen the growth rate plummeting to about 3% in the past years,” said an economic expert, who preferred not to be mentioned.

IMF Projections
While President Mahama was touting Moody’s ratings, an IMF staff report sent to its Executive Board to pass Ghana’s performance under the third review of the programme is expressing fears based on some tight financing conditions facing the government as a result of challenges with revenue mobilization.

According to the 121-page report, the development could result in some ‘overruns’ in the coming weeks, as the December elections approach.

“In the context of a much higher public debt level, a replay of the past spending splurges in election years would greatly heighten the risk of a full-blown economic and financial crisis and undermine Ghana’s development progress," according to the report.

Debt Sustainability Analysis
IMF maintained that Ghana’s risk of debt distress remained high under the updated Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), with two relevant debt indicators breaching the thresholds under the baseline.

It said, however, that end-2015 debt-to-GDP ratio turned out to be smaller than envisaged in the previous DSA due to larger fiscal consolidation, higher nominal GDP and exchange rate stabilization.

The report said it would be essential for the government to sustain fiscal transparency and be ready to tighten policies aggressively as the situation warrants, especially when there is an impending general election when there is “heightened risk aversion and investor uncertainty.”

It said with continued fiscal efforts, prudent debt management and careful selection of projects to be financed by non-concessional loans, the debt trajectory is now projected to show a more favourable path than before.

Discrepancies With Fiscal Data
The staff, in its report on Ghana, were of the view that the inconsistencies in fiscal reporting at the end of 2015, and first half of 2016 was more of timing issues and not indicative of worsening financial position of government.

The report said to keep track with fiscal consolidation plan will require enhanced revenue collection and continued strict expenditure control, in particular the wage bill while containing discretionary spending and there must also be strong vigilance and efforts to achieve the revised 2016 budget objective.

Bloomberg’s Angle
A leading global provider of 24-hour financial news and information Bloomberg is even quoting Joel Toujas-Bernate, the IMF’s mission head in Ghana, as confirming the slowing of economic growth in that uncertainty over the resumption of oil and gas output at a key field weighs on the country’s prospects for 2017.

The news outlet said the IMF issued its forecasts for Ghana after the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at 2.5 percent in the three months through June, as defects on the FPSO Kwame Nkrumah, the vessel used for production, storage and offloading crude at the Jubilee oil field adversely affected oil and gas output.

Bloomberg said the Mahama-led NDC government had said in July that growth will accelerate to between 4.1 percent and 4.3 percent this year.

IMF statement
It quoted the IMF in a statement as saying that “the outlook remains difficult and the balance of risks is tilted to the downside,” adding, “Uncertainty regarding repair operations at the Jubilee oil field poses a significant risk.”

 “The recent re-emergence of power shortages due to disruption in gas supply is adding to downside risks,” Bloomberg quoted the IMF as saying.

Oil Revenue Shortfalls
Bloomberg quoted Mr. Toujas-Bernate as telling reporters on a video conference call from Washington on Tuesday that the IMF revised Ghana’s budget deficit forecast for 2016 to 5.2 percent of GDP from 4.8 percent in May due to oil-revenue shortfalls.

Inflation will slow to 13.5 percent by the end of the year from 16.9 percent in August.





No comments: